123 Barron’s – Everything Is The Most Amazing That It Could Ever Be!

Barron’s Up & Down Wall Street – December 26

Overview

  • Even people who warned of big corrections if Trump were elected are now calling for bigger gains to come
  • The volatility index (VIX) fell to it’s lowest level in 2.5 years last week
  • The crude oil volatility (OVX) fell to two year lows
  • Treasury yields (10-year) have jumped above 2.5% (up from 1.36%)
  • The S&P 500 recently traded at 22.3 times what it’s companies earned in previous 4 quarters
  • Higher than 92% of readings since 1929
  • The previous 9 times when trailing price/earnings valuations topped 22 times, the index saw pullbacks avg 2.6% 3 months later and 6.2% after 6 months
  • Sentiment has improved, but data says household spending has not
  • The US economy may be “humming along” but it needs a new catalyst to show investors we aren’t at the peak of the current cycle – Nicholas Colas, Convergex
    • For now sentiment is enough, but in 2017 the new administration will need to deliver
  • The IPO market was down big in 2016 and could be poised to rebound in 2017
    • Says Kathleen Smith of Renaissance Capital
    • She estimates the pipeline to be 250 companies strong (were 275 in 2014)
    • Spigot could open in mid-Feb
    • Of note, Snapchat has filed to go public
  • Thanks to a new accounting rule, many companies will report better looking profits
    • The rule lets companies use stock based compensation benefits ot reduce their income tax and boost earnings

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